An interview with Sunny Feng Han: “Bitcoin’s price rebound will be fast, and the bull market will definitely be back next year!”
Original source: https://www.bitpush.news/articles/739839
-Translated by YY and Edited by Kenneth K
With the spread of the Coronavirus leading to the global economic slowdown, Bitcoin is facing unprecedented challenges. Bitcoin, global financial markets, and gold have all experienced sharp declines. Bitcoin’s status as a store of value is being challenged. However, Sunny Feng Han, co-founder of Elastos, believes that times like these are the best times to invest in Bitcoin. This is also an important opportunity for Bitcoin to prove its potential during this global financial crisis.
BitPush: Bitcoin is currently extremely volatile and is falling with global financial markets. Many people are concerned about Bitcoin’s ability to be a “hedge” against traditional financial markets, as it has always been touted. Is Bitcoin’s ability not as effective as we thought?
Sunny: I think Bitcoin could be the cryptocurrency with the fastest price recovery. If you don’t believe this, you can come back and check in the next two months. After all, the logic of Bitcoin is still very different from the traditional financial markets. I still think that Bitcoin may have the fastest price rebound and recovery.
BitPush: Why do you think this?
Sunny: Firstly, Bitcoin’s liquidity is the best in the world and is more liquid than our traditional securities. Even though the traditional securities of the United States are considered to have the best liquidity, they are actually confined in one place, such as Wall Street. Basically, it is only possible for the United States to “play” with securities. Although it is not impossible for other countries to “play” in this way, there are many restrictions in place, such as the flow of U.S. dollars. In other words, there are still various forms of shackles in the traditional financial markets, but Bitcoin does not have such shackles.
Capital markets in China are relatively stable right now. This kind of stability and liquidity can be brought directly to Bitcoin but not to Wall Street in the United States. For example, when China A-shares are performing badly, Wall Street in the United States is not affected. Traditional financial markets are still very much confined to their own territories; even Hong Kong’s stock market is no exception. It can be said that due to the lack of liquidity in these traditional financial markets, they have also lost comparatively to Bitcoin.
But in China, Bitcoin can quickly acquire this complementary function provided by “fresh blood”. In other words, any stable capital market in the world will inject new funds into Bitcoin and make its price rebound.
Bitcoin is the only kind of “securities” that can be circulated globally without any real obstacles (if Bitcoin is considered a security), which is unprecedented in human history.
BitPush: Why would China’s A-shares market help Bitcoin?
Sunny: The stability we see in China A-shares shows that China’s capital market is not panicking, or, it has already experienced panic. This situation is largely similar to the current epidemic where China indeed panicked in the beginning, but now the situation has calmed down and so there is a periodic “phase difference” with the United States, which is almost two months behind. This is hard to reflect in other capital markets. As I said, they are used to behaving in a very controlled environment. However, China’s A-shares market stability can be easily moved into Bitcoin, and so I believe that Bitcoin’s price will rebound really fast.
BitPush: Why would it easily move to Bitcoin?
Sunny: As there is less panic in China’s capital market, funds will flow into Bitcoin when its price is believed to be bottoming out.
BitPush: So, have you bought Bitcoin at current prices?
Sunny: Yes, I have been buying Bitcoin for the past few days. If you don’t think the Bitcoin price has been bottoming out now, when will it be? I think the Bitcoin price has bottomed out now, but this is just my personal opinion. We may not see such a low price again in the next few months.
We discussed the same question in 2018, and I said that Bitcoin could fall to $3,000 levels. We recently confirmed for the second time that Bitcoin price has fallen to US$4,000 levels. The price of around US$4,000 is really a “bottom” and we may never see such a low price again in the future.
BitPush: You have seen massive drops in Bitcoin price after so many years in the cryptocurrency market. What do you think of this recent Bitcoin price drop?
Sunny: There is nothing unusual about this massive drop in Bitcoin price. Digital currencies have fallen by 50%, or doubled in price. We are all used to it.
BitPush: In June 2011, Bitcoin rose from about US$0.95 to US$32, and then plummeted to US$2 in November of the same year, a full decline of 94%. Bitcoin’s sharp price drop of 87% in November 2013 alone is one of the most classic crashes. Compared with these historic declines, Bitcoin’s price has not fallen as much in modern times.
Sunny: Yes, in fact, the recent Bitcoin price drop was not that massive afterall. For the first time, it is rare to see the price drop for both Bitcoin and the Wall Street’s Dow Jones Index was a similar order of magnitude. In the past, the rise and fall of digital currencies were several times the magnitude. The drop of Bitcoin price this time can be said to be close to 40%. I think this is a very big improvement for Bitcoin’s price performance. This shows that Bitcoin is going to approach the stability that we are used to seeing in traditional financial markets.
BitPush: I recalled when you said that Bitcoin would fall to US$3,000 levels last year, and that it would bounce up and prove that Bitcoin’s price was strongly supported. The current situation is that humans have encountered a disaster that has never been seen in nearly a century (that is, the coronavirus outbreak). Bitcoin’s price has fallen to around US$4,000 and US$5,000 and rebounded. Could the statement that Bitcoin’s price is strongly supported at these levels true?
Sunny: Yes, this is called, “second confirmation.” Once this “bottom” is confirmed, it means that Bitcoin’s price “bottom” is very well-cushioned this time, and the price will rebound very strongly. Let me say something even crazier here. I think this is exactly the beginning of the future bull market. That is not to say that the bull market will come very soon, but it is likely that this is really the starting point for the next bull market.
BitPush: There are still many uncertainties in front of us. We do not know how the coronavirus epidemic will develop. If the United States can control the epidemic like China after one or two months, will there be a stable or even upward trend in the traditional financial market, Bitcoin, and the overall cryptocurrency market?
Sunny: Yes.
BitPush: What if the fight against coronavirus is an arduously long journey? In other words, China’s economy may not be able to return to normal as President Trump said today that the US economy may fall into recession. If the traditional global economy is once again full of uncertainties and even falls into a deeper abyss, what will the trend of Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market look like then?
Sunny: I think if Bitcoin’s price rebounds better than traditional financial markets, Bitcoin will really become a safe haven. In particular, as soon as the economy declines, the risks in traditional financial markets becomes even greater. I think that U.S. stocks are the most risky “financial products” right now as U.S. stocks have experienced a 11-year bull market and have been rising steadily since 2008. As far as I recall, the U.S. stocks rose from around 6,000 points to nearly 30,000 points.
BitPush: Yes, U.S. stocks were just above 6,000 points in March 2009.
Sunny: Yes, this is a golden decade in the history of the U.S. stock market. So now, relatively speaking, the U.S. stock market is more likely in a bubble. If U.S. stocks can be expected to return to a high, I estimate that these U.S. stocks are likely to linger for another month or two. But U.S. stocks might not recover in such a short time. The long-term bulls of the U.S. stock market in this decade must have overdrawn on their future.
Relatively speaking, Bitcoin’s price can recover sooner in a month or two. Let’s talk about China’s support first. Firstly, people’s hearts in China are not so panicked. This is a major premise. We buy when price hits the bottom, so long as we have funds to do so. I believe that some Asian markets including Japan and South Korea will soon react. Anyone who is a little rational will think that now is the best time to buy Bitcoin.
I predict that after a month or two, Bitcoin’s price will almost recover to nearly US$10,000. At that moment, many European and American investors may start to realise that the stock market is far from recovery in the foreseeable future. At that time, it is very likely that more and more investors will rely on Bitcoin as a hedge.
BitPush: Regarding the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, it seems that many people believe the halving event has not stimulated the Bitcoin market. What do you think of the immediate impact of Bitcoin halving?
Sunny: Bitcoin halving is a signal. Historically (the bulls and bears I have experienced twice), what does the halving sign? It is that the bull market will arrive in a year. The last halving took place in July 2016, and the last round of the real bull market arrived only in June 2017. So it was basically a year after the bull market ushered in. Now that the third halving has not even arrived, many people say that the bull market is coming soon. Isn’t this delusional?
On the one hand, I think that Bitcoin halving has given people a strong psychological hint that a bull market may come. This suggestion works because history has seen this pattern for two consecutive rounds of bulls and bears. Once Bitcoin is halved, people will look at this cryptocurrency market with a mentality to welcome the bull market.
But it is definitely not going to enter the bull market right away. Certain conditions are needed to initiate a bull market. For example, the last bull market was mainly triggered by factors such as Ethereum and some large-scale smart contract ICOs. This shows that many factors are needed to trigger a bull market. Why do most people want to buy at this bottom? In fact, it’s all about preparing for the next bull market. This psychological preparation is the premise of the emergence of a bull market. I am quite confident that the next bull market will come back next year.
We are all doing things now to prepare for that day to come. I feel that what we are really doing now is much more than what we did in 2016 and 2017 combined, and the scale of our influence is much greater than ever.
The overall pace of implementation of blockchain applications is accelerating. This is a “reshuffle” in history, whereby the traditional financial market is showing signs of slumping as it is already severely damaged this time. The emerging fintech now seems to be hit as well, but I think it will definitely recover soon in the next one or two months. I firmly believe that blockchain implementation will soon be truly realised. Traditional finance has no way to compete with such advantages.
BitPush: So is the bull market going to be next year?
Sunny: It must be next year, this year is impossible.
BitPush: You mentioned a lot of implementations just now. From the overall blockchain industry perspective, can you give some specific examples of implementation? How is the implementation now different from before?
Sunny: Previously, it was blockchain that generated digital currency and Bitcoin was the more successful one. In the future, data ownership should be emphasised and data becomes an asset. The Ministry of Public Security of China has now released elD (electronic IDentity) for citizens online. Elastos is now jointly developing the eID alliance chain. Especially during the epidemic, Elastos DID side chain + elD chain is used to protect everyone’s health data. With Elastos Green Pass, this can ensure that everyone owns his or her own health data. Unlike any apps you have used before, your data was stolen by others. This is very unsafe and unreasonable.
Following this logic, we will launch Green Pass, which is based on blockchain. Firstly, the data belongs to you. Permission should be obtained for participation in gatherings, meetings, and events in the future. In order to attend a party, you need to provide your own health data to others for approval. This was a big pain point when the global epidemic broke out, and so we are developing killer apps like Green Pass.
During the epidemic, the main focus is to protect personal data, but at the same time, another logic appeared that personal data should be owned by the person himself. As more and more data will be accumulated in the future, various applications can be turned into personal assets. Individuals can use personal data to apply for insurance and loans, participate in various social activities to obtain higher returns, or to sell their digital assets directly online. This is an inevitable logic for true prosperity of blockchain in the future. In this case, mass adoption will lead to the next bull market.
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https://redpacket.elastos.org/packet/grab/2484535618558931-1
